Entries are added when NOAA publishes; the next CPC discussion is due 8 Oct 2026. Each entry quotes the agency line and links its file. We write nothing NOAA has not published.
The date above is the one recorded in our data file on 2026-09-10. If today is past it and no new entry has appeared here, it means we have not yet read and logged the newer discussion, not that NOAA has gone quiet. Read the CPC discussion directly for the current word.
Per-state winter analogs recomputed from the NOAA statewide series
NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance statewide December-February series. Each analog El Nino event is matched to the December-February winter its peak season falls in. Anomalies are against the 1901-2000 mean.
Nine strong El Nino winters, three states computed so far. Precipitation is the usable signal; temperature is trend-confounded and is not presented as an El Nino effect. A small sample gives odds, never a forecast.
CPC keeps the El Nino Advisory and puts 69% odds on a historic event
El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. For October-December 2026 the CPC puts a 69% chance on a HISTORIC event - one exceeding every El Nino back to 1950 (a 3-month RONI of +2.5 degrees C or more).
These are odds for a season. They are not a forecast for any location's weather, and no single alert, fire or heatwave can be attributed to them.